25 Years After 9/11: Al-Qaeda Weakened But Not Gone

In 2026, the U.S. Department of the Treasury removed extremist preacher Abdullah al-Muhaysini from the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons list, marking 25 years since the September 11 attacks. Al-Qaeda, which means "the base" in Arabic, has weakened but not disappeared, with its core reduced but regional branches remaining strong in Africa and Asia, according to experts.

The military campaign in Afghanistan and cooperation between intelligence agencies and police have significantly weakened al-Qaeda. The September 11 attacks were a major strategic failure for the group, as hoped-for radicalization of the Arab world and overthrow of regimes failed to materialize. Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011, prompting al-Qaeda to reorganize and seek permanent footholds in areas with weak state structures, such as parts of Africa and Yemen.

Al-Qaeda offshoots like Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in the Sahel and Islamic State's Sahel Province (ISSP) compete for territory, fighters, and resources. In June 2026, JNIM claimed responsibility for an attack on an international airport in Niger's capital, Niamey. Al-Shabab in Somalia and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen, along with al-Qaeda's presence in Afghanistan, also remain strong.

However, al-Qaeda's success cannot be solely attributed to jihadist ideology. The group has increasingly focused on an "economy of violence," engaging in activities like kidnappings, smuggling, and looting for economic gain. This shift enables the group to recruit and retain followers where money can be made through violence.

Despite these changes, al-Qaeda competes with the Islamic State (IS) for public attention. Younger jihadists tend to be drawn more to IS due to its more spectacular and media-effective attacks. However, IS's expansion was followed by its collapse, while al-Qaeda continues to exist under changed circumstances.

With an aging fighter base, al-Qaeda faces the question of replacing its members. While possible, the group's brand is visibly fading, particularly in Europe where militant jihadism has become less attractive. However, jihadist ideas have not disappeared; al-Qaeda simply lost its former ability to mobilize large numbers of young people. The organization is now more focused on long-term survival through localized strategies and competition with IS for public attention.