Vor der Landtagswahl: Insa-Umfrage: SPD holt in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern auf

In preparation for the upcoming Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election, a recent Insa survey reveals the Social Democratic Party (SPD) narrowing the gap with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, while the CDU falls below the ten-percent threshold in this highly polarized campaign. According to the representative poll for the Neubrandenburg "Nordkurier" newspaper, the SPD would secure 33 percent of the votes, should the Sunday Landtag election take place.

This represents a four-point increase from the previous Insa survey four weeks ago. The AfD remains unchanged at 36 percent, while the CDU loses three points and would only obtain 7 percent. The Left party would stay at 11 percent, and the Greens would need to worry about failing to secure entry into the Landtag with a stagnant 5 percent.

The Bundestag's Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) bloc would also remain at 4 percent and would not have representation in the parliament under such an outcome. A possible red-red-green coalition might still be feasible, as the poll suggests that the Greens' presence in the Landtag could enable Schwesig to maintain the top spot of a tripartite coalition alongside them.

Insa's margin of error is noted as plus/minus 3.1 percentage points, based on a representative online survey of 1,000 people conducted from September 1-8. In the 2021 Landtag election, the Social Democrats had achieved 39.6 percent, the AfD 16.7, the CDU 13.3, the Left 9.9, the Greens 6.3, and the FDP 5.8 percent of the votes. In the Infratest dimap survey published at the beginning of September, the Social Democrats were at 32 percent, still four points behind the AfD, which had 35 percent.

In the Infratest survey, the Left party came in third with 11 percent, while the CDU had 8 percent, the Greens 5, and the BSW 4. Surveys are inherently uncertain, as they are subject to declining party affiliations and increasingly short-term election decisions, making it difficult for polling researchers to weight the collected data.

Generally, surveys only reflect the opinions at the time of the interview and are not forecasts of the election outcome.