Unaccounted climate feedback loops may amplify warming by 20–30% this century, but cutting emissions will reduce risks
New research shows that warming-induced emissions—greenhouse gas emissions from natural sources driven by rising temperatures—could amplify global warming by approximately 20%–30% and add an estimated 0.2°C–0.4°C of warming this century on top of anthropogenic warming under different scenarios. These major additional drivers of warming are largely unaccounted for in current climate projections…
New research indicates that warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions could amplify global warming by 20%-30% this century, adding an estimated 0.2°C-0.4°C to warming on top of human-caused emissions. These feedbacks, including permafrost thaw, wildfires, wetlands and inland waters, are not currently accounted for in most climate models.
Scientists warn that even if human emissions decline to net-zero, these natural feedbacks could still add an estimated 0.2°C by 2100 under a strong climate action scenario, or 0.4°C in a higher emissions scenario. Permafrost thaw alone accounts for half of the projected warming-induced emissions. The authors emphasize the urgency of addressing these feedbacks, as they could significantly erode remaining time to warming thresholds.
They stress the need to include these emissions in policy and planning processes to accurately assess future warming risks.
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