Newfoundland and Labrador to lead economic growth in 2026, Ontario to lag: report

A new report has projected that Newfoundland and Labrador will lead Canada's economic growth for the second consecutive year in 2026, while Ontario is expected to experience the weakest growth among all provinces. The report, by Signal49 Research (formerly the Conference Board of Canada), predicts Newfoundland and Labrador's economy will expand by 3.7% in 2026, despite longer-term growth being limited by demographic pressures.

Ontario's economy is forecast to expand by just 0.2% this year, and the report attributes this to the province's heavy reliance on manufacturing, which has been affected by U.S. tariffs. Ontario and Quebec have been particularly impacted by these tariffs, leading to weaker economic performance compared to other provinces. The report also highlights that Canada's overall economic conditions are expected to improve in the second half of 2026, as hiring activity increases and businesses become more confident in their investment plans.

Factors contributing to the uneven economic impact across the country include the conflict in the Middle East, demographic pressures, and ongoing tariff uncertainty. Lead economist Richard Forbes explained that increased energy prices have benefited some provinces, while the tariffs have disproportionately affected Ontario and Quebec due to their manufacturing sector exposure. The report was first published on September 10, 2026, by The Canadian Press.