‘Institutional neglect’: 25 years on from 9/11, experts sound alarm over US counter-terror efforts

Twenty-five years after the 9/11 attacks, security experts are raising concerns over the state of the United States' counter-terrorism efforts. The 2001 assaults, carried out by Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida group, resulted in the deaths of approximately 3,000 individuals and triggered a series of conflicts, radicalization, and instability in the Middle East and beyond.

Despite the absence of large-scale attacks on American soil since September 11, 2001, and only a limited number of incidents inspired by extremist Islamist ideologies, there are growing apprehensions about escalating risks.

Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism specialist at Georgetown University, recalled the chaos and panic that ensued on that fateful day and emphasized the importance of remaining vigilant against a threat that, while episodic, can be highly consequential. Hoffman has informed the US House permanent select committee on intelligence that the counter-terrorism infrastructure established after 9/11 is deteriorating due to budget cuts, personnel losses, and the de-emphasis of terrorism as a national security priority.

The threat posed by al-Qaida has evolved and grown, according to analysts, with some questioning whether the lack of visible attacks indicates a lack of ambition or a strategic, calculated approach to waiting for the opportune moment. A UN report, based on intelligence supplied by member states, suggests that al-Qaida's senior leadership remains marginalized, and its capability and intent to conduct external operations remain unclear.

Colin Clarke, the executive director of the Soufan Center, attributes the challenges to a combination of factors, including funding, personnel shortages, and complacency. The prolonged "global war on terror" over the past two decades has led to fatigue, with analysts advocating for a shift in focus toward long-term, strategic competition with revisionist powers like Russia and China.

However, policies implemented by the Trump administration have further exacerbated these issues. Critics allege that the administration has politicized counter-terrorism efforts, made ill-advised appointments to senior intelligence positions, and diverted attention from more pressing threats with a campaign against drug cartels.

Donald Trump's actions have reportedly demoralized intelligence veterans and damaged morale within the intelligence community. Tulsi Gabbard was appointed as director of national intelligence, and Kash Patel was designated as director of the FBI, both of whom have been criticized for lacking sufficient experience in law enforcement.

The 2026 financial year funding request for the main agencies of the civilian intelligence community is $81 billion, but the designation of criminal organizations such as the Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations has strained resources.

A controversial updated counter-terrorism strategy released in May by the Trump administration has been met with criticism from many intelligence experts and analysts. The strategy downplays the rising threat of right-wing extremism in the US and emphasizes the battle against left-wing violence, drug cartels, and gangs, raising concerns about the focus of resources.

Deborah Margolin, from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, acknowledges that the new strategy represents a significant shift but highlights that it appears to be more focused on a political agenda than the reality of the threat. While the strategy still acknowledges the threat posed by groups like the Islamic State and al-Qaida, it also broadens the definitions of counter-terrorism, using the extensive counter-terrorism bureaucracy built over the past two decades for political purposes. This has resulted in the dwindling counter-terrorism resources being stretched even thinner.

The loss of experienced personnel is a significant concern, with experts criticizing the dismantlement of programs aimed at countering extremist ideologies and preventing radicalization. Don Rassler, the director of strategic initiatives at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, warns that terrorism has become less of a priority as strategic focus shifts to potential threats from China and Russia.

He emphasizes the importance of the intelligence community avoiding the dynamics that led to the 9/11 event, which resulted from a series of attacks launched by Bin Laden in 1996 and 1998.