Copper: Tariff uncertainty and max CTA length – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts Ryan McKay and Bart Melek have reported that copper's recent price rally has been primarily due to supply-side factors, including inventory depletion caused by tariffs. After the White House announced it has not yet decided on copper tariffs, prices for the metal dropped significantly. CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) are currently maintaining maximum long exposure, with the nearest sell trigger set around $13,500 per tonne.

The lack of a price decision does not necessarily mean no tariffs will be implemented, as the uncertainty may keep copper prices low in the US and maintain arbitrage opportunities. Despite the recent decline, CTAs remain confident in their long positions, with sell triggers near $13,500 per tonne.