Canadian Dollar firms as US Dollar loses momentum, Oil prices extend rally

The Canadian Dollar strengthened on Thursday as the US Dollar lost momentum after a modest recovery, despite a rise in US Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicating producer inflation increased again in August. Meanwhile, higher Oil prices gave support to the Canadian Dollar. The USD/CAD pair traded around 1.3815, reaching a high of 1.3835 intraday.

The US PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month in August, matching expectations and accelerating from July's 0.1% increase. Annual producer inflation climbed to 5.4%, slightly above the 5.3% forecast. The Canadian Dollar's sensitivity to Oil prices is due to Canada's status as a major crude exporter. National Bank of Canada analysts noted strong appreciation of the Canadian Dollar in Q3, citing positive economic surprises and higher oil and gold prices.

However, they cautioned about trade negotiations setbacks and their potential impact on Canadian growth, suggesting the USD/CAD could retrace toward 1.40 in the near term if the talks result in a favorable outcome. Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz also contributed to market-implied odds of returning to normal by year-end falling below 30%, supporting the Canadian Dollar.