Chicago corn edges higher as traders await key USDA supply outlook

Chicago corn futures rose slightly on Thursday as market participants kept a close eye on the conflict in the Black Sea region and prepared for the upcoming US Department of Agriculture supply-and-demand report. Wheat prices fell, while soybean futures remained steady. The most actively traded corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 0.14% to $5.28-1/5 a bushel.

Meanwhile, wheat fell 0.3% to $7.25-1/4 a bushel, and soybeans stayed unchanged at $13.09 a bushel. Grain traders are now focusing on the USDA report set to be released on Friday, although concerns about poor yields in the US Corn Belt continue to support corn prices. The USDA report is anticipated to offer a better understanding of the impact hot, dry weather this summer had on US Midwest crops, particularly soybeans.

In a recent survey, analysts estimate the USDA will announce a corn yield of 178.2 bushels per acre. Forecasts from Commodity Weather Group predict slightly wetter weather in the US Midwest, with minimal delays to the soybean harvest. Argentina, the world's third-largest corn exporter, plans to export a record 10 million metric tons of corn in August and September, driven by a robust harvest and high global demand as buyers look for alternatives to Ukrainian corn shipments and European crops affected by extreme heat.

Brazil's corn exports are expected to reach 5.2 million tons in September, down from 6.98 million tons in the same period last year, according to grain exporters' union ANEC. Market participants are also monitoring US diplomatic efforts to resolve the Black Sea conflict, which has disrupted grain exports worldwide. Recent reports suggest Ukraine targeted Novorossiysk, a key Black Sea port, with airstrikes on a naval base and an oil terminal, while Russia has expressed hope for resuming US-mediated talks and prefers Abu Dhabi as a meeting location.