What should Germany do about its rising right?

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has defied expectations by securing a substantial share of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, one of Germany's 16 states. This development has alarmed the country, as the AfD employs former neo-Nazis and has been labeled an "extremist" group by Germany's intelligence service. Should the AfD gain power in Saxony-Anhalt, it may be hampered by internal conflicts and incompetence.

However, this should not diminish the gravity of the situation. The AfD's success is not limited to the east; it has also performed well in richer western states like Baden-Württemberg. Currently, the AfD leads in national polls, eight points ahead of the struggling center-right CDU/CSU coalition, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

An election today would likely necessitate a coalition of all centrist parties to prevent the AfD from forming a government. German politics is evolving into pro-AfD and anti-AfD factions, mirroring the divide across much of Eastern Germany. Initially, German centrists believed they could contain the AfD's influence through their "Brandmauer" (firewall) policy, which excluded the party from coalitions.

However, the AfD has become more radical as it has grown, promoting ideas such as "remigration," cooperation with Russia, and withdrawal from the European Union and the euro. Despite these radical policies, nearly half of Saxony-Anhalt's voters chose the AfD, primarily due to mobilizing individuals who did not participate in the previous election.

While national elections in Germany may still avoid a full-fledged right-wing takeover, the political center must not let the AfD's success lead to a lack of action. Before the summer, Chancellor Merz's coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) had approved significant reforms, including income tax and pension adjustments. However, the SPD is now reconsidering some of these policies, such as ending early retirement, which could compromise the entire reform package.

The CDU should reconsider its strict Brandmauer strategy, which has excluded potential cooperation with the AfD. While the AfD's stated goal is to destroy the CDU, the CDU should not enable the party's government entry if it opposes essential aspects of the CDU's platform. Softening its stance could help moderate AfD members, who are uneasy about their radical comrades' influence.

Replacing Chancellor Merz may also be necessary, as his management skills are lacking and his approval rating is low. The CDU has alternative options for leadership if Merz proves ineffective in articulating a compelling vision for centrist politics.