Tanker war 2.0: How US-Iran ship attacks are escalating

The US and Iran are embroiled in a new maritime conflict, reminiscent of the "Tanker War" of the 1980s, as each side targets commercial shipping amid the ongoing six-month-long war. US President Donald Trump's approval of a tit-for-tat policy of attacks on tankers has heightened tensions, potentially involving Gulf states, global powers, and energy markets.

On Saturday, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched ballistic missiles at two US Navy warships, a US aircraft carrier and a guided-missile destroyer, both of which managed to avoid destruction. In retaliation, the US struck three Iranian oil tankers linked to the IRGC, disabling two and destroying a third. US Central Command's chief, Adm Brad Cooper, emphasized that each act of aggression would provoke a higher economic cost for Iran.

Iran expanded its attacks, striking two US warships and eight oil tankers, accusing them of violating a designated "unsafe" zone around the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also threatened oil tankers near Bahrain and Kuwait, firing 20 ballistic missiles towards a US military base in Jordan, of which 18 were intercepted. The escalation shows an "escalatory trap," where each side sets the terms of the next confrontation, pushing both Iran and the US to make increasingly damaging strikes on one another's assets.

This pattern is reminiscent of the 1980s Tanker War, where Iran and Iraq targeted each other's oil and merchant vessels, drawing in outside powers and posing a military threat to the security of Gulf oil.