Next round of Lebanon-Israel talks likely to be split between Rome and Florida

Direct US-brokered talks between Lebanon and Israel are set to be divided between Rome and Florida, according to sources cited by The National. No significant progress is anticipated before Israel's elections next month. This diplomatic standstill arises from a perceived waning confidence in the US pressuring Israel to reduce its aggressive actions.

Negotiations have largely hit a roadblock as Israeli forces continue their intensive airstrikes in southern Lebanon, potentially undermining the fragile ceasefire and threatening a comprehensive US-brokered peace plan. Hundreds of people gathered on Tuesday to mourn the loss of 13 lives in Israeli strikes on the southern town of Kafr Remman the previous day.

Sources indicate that the upcoming talks will see the political and military tracks proceeding independently. Israeli and Lebanese military delegations will convene separately in Florida while political discussions persist in Rome. A Lebanese official expressed pessimism about the US applying pressure on Israel to halt its escalation, stating that Israel will be left to its own devices until after the elections.

Under the US framework, pilot zones would be designated for Israeli withdrawal, Hezbollah disarmament, and Lebanese military control, with the ultimate aim of having Lebanon under sole Lebanese jurisdiction. The official also conveyed a growing sense of entrapment within the US-brokered framework, with minimal room for introducing additional international players.

Lebanon's attempts to engage France, a longstanding ally with historical sway over the country, have encountered Israeli resistance, the official added. Lebanon remains committed to pursuing negotiations, but officials are increasingly questioning whether they can coax Israeli concessions without firmer pressure from the Trump administration.

"We want to keep this process alive because if we don't have this process, what other alternative do we have?" the official queried. "At least with the Americans applying pressure, Israel hasn't escalated its attacks to Beirut and Dahieh. We haven't been able to do much beyond that." The report highlights a decline in Lebanese optimism regarding the US-led initiative.

Lebanon initially entered negotiations in hopes that Washington would leverage its influence over Israel to end the southern attacks and initiate a gradual Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory. However, Israeli military and demolitions have persisted, even outside the boundaries of the security zone the Israelis established.

Recently, Israeli troops claimed operational control of the strategic Ali Taher heights overlooking Nabatieh. On Tuesday, Israeli forces planted an Israeli flag in Kfarshouba, a populated border town, signaling an ever-present Israeli footprint in the occupied south. Residents are now greeted by this flag daily, as Walid Nasser, a Kfarshouba resident, lamented.

Israeli forces have conducted regular patrols and artillery barrages on their buildings. Even the possibility of negotiations advancing post-election remains uncertain. Sources within Israel are reportedly contemplating maintaining a strip of southern Lebanon, approximately two to four kilometers deep, which could serve as a base for future attacks against Hezbollah across the region. Such a scenario would fall far short of Lebanon's explicit demand for a full Israeli withdrawal.