Immobilien: „Die Refinanzierungslücke ist Realität geworden“ – droht eine große Pleitewelle in der Immobilienbranche?

In the midst of a housing market crisis, the refinancing gap in Germany's property sector has become a reality, threatening a wave of bankruptcies in the industry. The issue came to light when Pandion, a leading developer, filed for insolvency in August, followed by several of its subsidiaries. This development prompted concerns about a potential second wave of insolvencies among the industry's major players.

Oliver Platt, a partner at Kucera Rechtsanwälte, noted that even companies once considered recession-proof, like Pandion, are now facing difficulties. Pandion had secured 340 million euros in new financing in early 2026 but struggled to access the funds due to liquidity challenges rather than project inefficiencies. The refinancing gap, currently at around 6.3 billion euros, is expected to reach 40 billion euros by 2026.

Francesco Fedele, CEO of BF direkt, explained the problem using an example: An investor financed a 100 million euro office building with 65% leverage in 2020, obtaining a 65 million euro bank loan. Today, after a valuation correction of around 20%, the building is worth only 80 million euros. With the bank becoming more cautious and only willing to finance 55% of the property, the investor now receives only an 44 million euro loan (55% of 80 million euros). This refinancing gap has become a reality, according to Fedele.

While some experts argue that a second insolvency wave is not imminent, others remain cautious. Konstantin Kortmann, Germany's chief at JLL, highlights that pure project developers face significant challenges due to rising construction and financing costs, coupled with lower-than-expected property values. He also points out that many traditional investors have reduced their exposure or left the market entirely, leaving little capital to support new projects.