Forecast suggests winter to wait as El Nino extends fall
It’s shaping up to be a mild fall across much of Canada, The Weather Network’s forecast suggests, with a potentially historic El Nino expected to prolong the season and delay winter’s arrival. September and October will still bring the usual swings between warm spells and bursts of chilly, stormy weather, the network’s three-month outlook says. […]
A mild fall is predicted across Canada, with El Nino potentially prolonging the season and delaying winter's arrival. September and October will still experience warm spells and cold, stormy weather, but the overall balance is expected to be milder and drier than normal. Senior meteorologist Doug Gillham stated that winter may "wait on the sidelines for a while," as the strong El Nino phenomenon is expected to raise temperatures, further increasing the risk of severe weather events like floods, drought, and extreme heat.
While El Nino will shift the storm track south and bring milder Pacific air to Canada, it may also reduce the likelihood of classic fall storms, fewer Atlantic hurricanes, and fewer cold Arctic air invasions. However, this unprecedented El Nino could bring surprises and uncertainty to the forecast. Canadian temperatures are currently 2.4 degrees warmer than during the mid-20th century due to climate change, with the forecast's baseline based on data from 1991-2020.
The season may feature some high-impact storms, but fewer than usual. Central Canada is expected to have a drier weather pattern persisting into November, which could be a relief for areas like Ottawa and Niagara after a summer of record rainfall. However, consistent cold or early winter weather is not anticipated in Ontario and Quebec during the fall.
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