Can Ukraine’s newly shown Koral become home-built answer to Patriot? Expert evaluates system displayed at Poland’s MSPO expo

Ukraine's newly showcased Koral missile may potentially serve as a home-built alternative to the Patriot system, according to arms expert Ivan Kyrychevsky. However, Kyrychevsky, who is a soldier in the Unmanned Systems Forces' 413th REID regiment, emphasizes that the Koral has yet to demonstrate its ability to intercept Russian ballistic missiles.

At present, the PAC-3 version of the Patriot remains Ukraine's sole reliable defense against Russian Iskander ballistic missiles, though its interceptors are limited, expensive, and rationed by the US. Kyrychevsky places the Koral missile at around the level of the older PAC-2 interceptor, which is capable of dealing with aircraft and simpler ballistic targets but not ideal for countering the fast and maneuvering Iskander and Kinzhal missiles.

Hence, Koral could provide a hedge against dependence on the Patriot rather than a direct replacement. Kyrychevsky bases this evaluation on the photos released at the expo, noting that the Koral lacks the gas-dynamic surfaces that would enable flight maneuvering and carries a different warhead from the hit-to-kill round on the PAC-3.

The expert does not consider this a major drawback, stating that Ukraine currently needs at least a somewhat advanced missile system. Economically, the Koral missile aligns well with Ukraine's situation. A single PAC-3 interceptor costs around $10 million, and Kyrychevsky argues that the US Army finds them too expensive given the demands of the fighting near Iran.

He believes that developing a Russian analog of the Patriot would be a more cost-effective solution than relying on external deliveries. Regarding the short term, Kyrychevsky cautions that the Koral missile must undergo further testing against Russian ballistic missiles, even experimentally, to confirm its claimed performance. Additionally, power cuts at the plants responsible for manufacturing the missile could potentially slow down production.

For now, the expert believes that Ukraine will still require Patriot interceptors, regardless of whether it develops its own Koral missile. The development of Koral began in 2016, and the system was first presented in 2021, a relatively swift pace for a weapon of its kind. Additionally, a separate European project called "Freya" is progressing in parallel with Koral's development.

In July, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine, in collaboration with other European nations, is working on an anti-ballistic missile defense system called “Freya”. This system is designed to be a cheaper and more easily deployable alternative to Patriot air defense systems. However, Zelenskyy acknowledged that, in theory, Ukraine could develop "Freya" independently, but it would take considerably more time, potentially years, as the system requires not only a missile and launcher but also radars, command-and-control systems, and numerous other components.