Anthropic modeled what AI could do by 2030 — the economy gets 32% richer while workers get left behind
Anthropic modeled how AI could reshape jobs and wages by 2030, including a scenario where the U.S. economy grows 32% larger while knowledge workers earn less.
Anthropic, the company behind AI chatbot Claude, has created a model to predict the impact of rapidly advancing AI on the U.S. economy by 2030. The model explores how AI could affect jobs, wages, and the overall economy, using three different sets of assumptions. One scenario shows the economy growing by 32.4% while wages for knowledge workers remain stagnant, while in a more extreme case, the economy grows 32.4% larger than it would have without AI, but knowledge worker wages fall by more than 10%.
The company used AI to model different scenarios based on factors such as AI adoption, automation, workers' ability to switch careers, and productivity gains. The model found that AI could take on half of all knowledge-work tasks by 2030 and perform most of those tasks autonomously, which would significantly boost the economy. However, knowledge-worker wages would likely fall, and unemployment could rise if people cannot easily transition to other occupations.
The model suggests that most people do not expect the extreme scenario to occur, with typical respondents' expectations aligning more closely with the substantial scenario.
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