Analysts predict mixed outcomes for Umno, BN if Najib is pardoned

A pardon for incarcerated former Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak could have mixed implications for Umno and Barisan Nasional (BN), according to political analysts. On September 11, the Federal Territories Pardons Board is set to deliberate on Najib's application for a pardon related to convictions stemming from the 1MDB scandal.

The analysts assert that a pardon would invigorate Umno's grassroots, particularly among those who view his conviction as political persecution. It would also enable Umno leaders to claim they've done their best, potentially unifying the party that has been fractured since its 2022 electoral defeat. However, a pardon could also bolster the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition's standing among Malay voters, who still respect Najib despite his incarceration and ongoing legal issues.

This support was evident in the Johor election earlier this year, where the People's Justice Party (PKR) used the prospect of Najib's pardon to their advantage, helping BN secure a strong victory. Despite these benefits, analysts caution that a pardon could also backfire for BN. The Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PKS) might leverage the issue to revive the 1MDB scandal and attack BN, potentially alienating non-Malay and urban voters.

Furthermore, Najib's other pending legal cases could further damage BN's reputation should he face additional convictions. Meanwhile, the Parti Keadilan Se-Malaysia (PKR) could exploit Najib's pardon to promote its anti-corruption and reformist agenda, but the decision could also generate criticism from reform-minded voters in PH, who might question why the board's decision was made during the current government's tenure.