Analysts predict mixed outcomes for Umno, BN if Najib is pardoned

Political analysts predict that a pardon for former Prime Minister Najib Razak could yield mixed results for Umno and Barisan Nasional (BN). The Federal Territories Pardons Board is set to meet on September 11 to consider Najib's application for a pardon related to his convictions over the 1MDB scandal. According to analysts Azmi Hassan, Mazlan Ali, and Tawfik Yaakub, a pardon would bolster Umno's grassroots morale, particularly among supporters who believe Najib was politically persecuted.

It could also inject fresh energy into the party, especially ahead of the next general election, and provide relief to Umno leaders who have been advocating for Najib's cause.

Najib could become a campaign asset for BN, particularly in reaching Malay voters who still view him as a significant contributor to the country's development, as evidenced by PH's unsuccessful attempt to use his pardon against BN in the July Johor election. However, analysts caution that a pardon could undermine BN's efforts to rebuild its image, as the People's Alliance (PH) might leverage the issue to revive the 1MDB scandal and attack BN, potentially alienating non-Malay, urban, and fence-sitting voters. Moreover, Najib's other pending cases could further complicate BN's image.

PH could also use Najib's pardon to attack the incumbent coalition, reinforcing its anti-graft and Reformasi narratives. However, Tawfik warns that PH might face backlash if voters wrongly attribute the board's decision to BN, leading to frustration or a loss of trust among its core supporters. The hardline stance against Najib could further strain the relationship between PH and Umno.

Analysts point out that PH supporters are generally opposed to a full pardon or house arrest for Najib, fearing that such a move would imply Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has not done enough to ensure Najib serves his full sentence. Regardless, analysts warn that a rejuvenated and energized Umno could pose a more significant challenge to PH in the Melaka elections and the next general election, as Najib's support could bolster BN's position.