Will new transportation technologies increase urban density?
Will 21st century transportation innovations work against urban density, as the car did in the 20th century, or promote urban centralization, as the railroad did in the 19th century? Reducing the cost of commuting always reduces urban centralization in the classic Alonso-Muth-Mills model but that result reverses if the number of trips is endogenous and […] The post Will new transportation…
Recent advancements in transportation could either hinder or foster urban density, according to a new working paper by NBER economist Ed Glaeser. The study explores how four emerging technologies—shared mobility, autonomy, vertical travel, and green mobility—might impact city living. While the cost of commuting typically reduces centralization, the new research suggests that this trend could be altered if the number of trips is influenced by factors beyond mere cost-effectiveness.
The paper argues that the rising share of discretionary daily trips, coupled with the increasing provision of entertainment in city centers, may be increasing the elasticity of trips with respect to their costs. This, in turn, could make innovations like autonomous cars more conducive to urban living, provided they don't lead to excessive traffic.
Shared mobility, too, seems more likely to promote urban density due to the ease of sharing in larger cities. However, the paper also highlights that inertia—referring to regulatory hurdles and existing infrastructure—could limit the impact of these new technologies in Europe and the U.S. Consequently, any significant shifts in urban form might be most noticeable in east Asia and developing regions.
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