Why isn’t oil above $100 despite supply disruptions?

Global oil benchmark Brent crude has remained below $100 a barrel despite recent tensions between the U.S. and Iran disrupting Gulf exports. Shipments from Middle East producers have decreased from 18 million barrels per day (bpd) to about 11 million bpd due to the conflict. However, alternative routes and increased output from non-OPEC producers have mitigated some of the shortfall.

Iran's exports have greatly decreased due to the U.S. blockade, while top importer China has reduced its seaborne crude shipments. Despite these challenges, several banks predict Brent price forecasts to average $100 a barrel in the fourth quarter.