Tin prices poised to remain elevated on resilient demand from manufacturing, semiconductor and AI-related sectors
The metal has gained over 35 per cent this year with price fluctuating after hitting a peak of $59,040 in June
Tin prices are expected to remain elevated throughout 2026 due to persistent demand from manufacturing, semiconductor, and AI-related sectors, according to research firm BMI, a subsidiary of Fitch Solutions. The agency's annual average tin price forecast for 2026 has been revised upwards from $49,000 per tonne to $51,500 per tonne, driven by the surge in AI capex and the resulting increased demand for tin in the semiconductor industry.
Despite a record high of $59,040 per tonne in June, tin prices have since retreated to $55,030 per tonne.
Tom Langston, Senior Market Analyst at the International Tin Association (ITA), noted that demand for tin is mixed, with resilient manufacturing activity and semiconductor and AI-related demand offset by weakness in traditional end-use sectors and a slowdown in China's PV sector. Macroeconomic headwinds, including hawkish signals from the Jackson Hole economic forum and renewed US-Iran hostilities, have also dampened speculative enthusiasm, particularly in China. The SHFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange) open interest in tin has fallen for three consecutive weeks.
Supply constraints are expected to persist throughout 2026, although the fourth quarter may see some moderation in prices as supply issues ease slightly and AI capex growth decelerates. Indonesian tin exports have started to normalize since Q2 2026, following declines in 2024 and 2025, but the recovery has been slower than anticipated.
Indonesia's refined tin exports rose by 20.4% year-on-year to 4,564.53 tonnes in July 2026. Meanwhile, Myanmar is the world's third-largest tin producer, with the third-largest reserves of 700,000 tonnes, after China and Indonesia. However, shipments from Myanmar's Wa state are yet to resume, despite several operators reportedly securing three-year mining permits.
Global tin stocks remain low, particularly on the London Metal Exchange and SHFE, exposing the tin market to volatility.
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