A response to Senator Ben Murray-Bruce: Beyond campaign rhetoric to structural reform

Senator Ben Murray-Bruce's impassioned letter to President Bola Tinubu addressing Nigeria's electricity crisis brings attention to a pressing issue that millions have endured for decades. However, his proposed solutions may inadvertently exacerbate the very problems they aim to solve. Murray-Bruce advocates for the fragmentation of Nigeria's power grid into thousands of community mini-grids, dismissing the economic and engineering realities that would make such a plan ineffective.

This approach would destroy the efficiency of large central generation systems and interconnected networks, forcing the country to spend far more to generate far less power. Furthermore, his calculations for the cost of installing solar panels and batteries to power a single estate are wildly off, suggesting an inflated N3 billion budget when the actual figure is closer to N30 billion.

Applying these flawed figures to Lagos State, a state with a population of 25 million, the cost to serve even a fraction of its population would be staggering – equivalent to roughly one and a half times Lagos' entire 2026 capital budget. The Senator's model would create an elite class with reliable power while leaving the majority without electricity, perpetuating inequality and social injustice.

Additionally, the Senator's proposal for state governments to provide loan guarantees for private estates raises concerns about public funds being used to underwrite private risks, which could lead to a sovereign debt crisis. Nigeria currently faces a debt of N6.8 trillion owed to power generation companies, with 16 out of 33 plants unable to supply power due to financial constraints.

The funding shortfall to close Nigeria's electricity gap stands at approximately $20 billion. The Senator's plan would abandon the existing power grid's potential, which remains largely untapped, and instead invest billions in a parallel system that has no economic basis. It would require billions to install new infrastructure and yet serve only a small fraction of the population, leaving millions in the dark.