Un resultado electoral en Alemania que resuena en todo el mundo

A remarkable election outcome in Germany is resonating globally, as the Kremlin and the Trump administration celebrate the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. This is an unusual level of international interest in a German regional election, but the significant surge in support for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday marks a transcendent global event.

The Saxony-Anhalt branch of the AfD is classified as right-wing extremist by German intelligence services, and some party members are known to embrace Nazi symbolism and imagery. Despite this, governments of Russia and the United States – nations that pride themselves on their roles in defeating Nazism – are applauding the party's ascent.

The Kremlin expected the AfD to perform well in the Saxony-Anhalt elections, which took place on September 6th – a date that holds historical significance for the party. Russian intermediary Kirill Dmitriev, who has close ties with the Trump administration, posted enthusiastically about the election on X (formerly Twitter) on August 23rd, a date that marks the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in 1939 between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union.

While this could be a coincidence, Russia has concrete reasons to support the AfD. The party campaigns to end German aid to Ukraine, reestablish economic ties with Russia, and increase Russian language instruction in German schools.

One of the AfD's key figures in Saxony-Anhalt expressed displeasure when journalists saw a Russian army mug in his office. In addition to being a supporter of the AfD, Dmitriev is a crucial link between the Kremlin and the White House. Like the Kremlin, the Trump administration has flirted with far-right elements in Germany. At the Munich Security Conference last year, US Vice President J.D. Vance met with AfD leader Alice Weidel, while deliberately avoiding a meeting with then German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The United States' national security strategy published at the end of the year warned that Europe faces a loss of civilization, largely due to its tolerance for mass immigration. Angela Merkel, the former German chancellor, is widely criticized for mishandling the refugee crisis of 2015. Immigration has significantly contributed to the rise in AfD support.

The party now campaigns for remigration, an ambiguous term that could range from deporting illegal immigrants to expelling all German citizens of immigrant origin. While right-wing and anti-immigration parties have previously gained power in other European nations like Austria and the Netherlands, Germany's history and size lend its political trajectory special importance.

The memory of Nazism makes traditional German parties staunchly opposed to the AfD and unwilling to form coalitions with far-right parties. This wall may be about to crumble in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD fell just three seats short of an absolute majority. Even if it holds, forming a broad coalition excluding a political party that has garnered 44% of the votes, surpassing its nearest rival the CDU by over 25%, remains a morally and practically difficult task.

Although AfD's national support is significantly lower than in Saxony-Anhalt, it still leads national surveys regularly. Even so, traditional center parties may begin adopting policies similar to the AfD, albeit in a more moderate manner, on issues such as immigration, the EU, and the Ukraine war. Any such move could shake the continent.

Re-armament in Germany is emblematic of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government and crucial to European efforts to deter Russia. However, the rise of a Russia-friendly party could undermine this. The resurgence of a nationalist party in Germany could also pose profound questions for the EU. For example, the AfD has pledged to abandon the single European currency and potentially the EU itself, a move that would be welcomed by Russia and the Trump administration but met with dismay by liberal democracies outside Europe, such as Canada and Japan, which view the EU as a counterbalance to Russian, Chinese, and Trump-led American nationalism and power politics.