Morgan Stanley: Eni leads European oil majors in production growth outlook

Morgan Stanley's recent analysis of European oil majors' production data reveals that Eni is leading the pack in terms of growth projections through 2030. The financial firm analyzed production information from around 4,000 oil and gas fields, finding that the sector's overall production growth is projected to improve to 2.9% annually between 2025 and 2030, up from the previous year's forecast of 1.2%. The rolling four-year forward production growth has increased by 8.3%.

Among the studied companies, Eni stands out as the strongest with a projected production growth of 4.5% through 2030, with further increases anticipated through 2034. In contrast, Equinor faces the most significant challenges in production growth within this group. Morgan Stanley has upgraded Shell to "Overweight" status, designating it as a "Top Pick" with an expected total shareholder return of 15%. The firm expects a significant acceleration in Shell's dividend per share following recent business improvements.

Additionally, Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on BP, citing expectations for a faster reduction in net debt than the company's stated targets, an attractive valuation, and multiple potential catalysts. The research team utilized bottom-up data from various data consultants to map the production growth outlook across the European major oil companies.