GBP/USD Price Forecast: Struggles near 1.3500 amid modest USD uptick; bears seem hesitant

The GBP/USD pair remains cautiously positioned near the 1.3500 psychological level during the Asian trading session on Monday, displaying a negative bias for two consecutive days. Despite this, the pair has managed to stay above the previous week's swing low, providing a modicum of support for skeptical traders. The US Dollar (USD) benefits from expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September, driven by inflationary pressures stemming from higher energy prices.

Additionally, heightened US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz serve as a catalyst for the safe-haven USD, exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. However, USD bulls are exhibiting caution and are awaiting the release of US inflation data later in the week to gauge the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory. Traders will also be closely monitoring the UK's monthly GDP report, scheduled for release on Friday, as a potential catalyst for further price movement.

In the interim, reduced trading volumes due to the US Labor Day holiday may stifle aggressive betting and contribute to the GBP/USD's consolidation. From a technical standpoint, the pair remains above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3460 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June-August rally. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 48.7, indicating a neutral position, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains slightly negative, signaling modest upside momentum.

Should bearish traders await a decisive pullback from the recent six-month high, established in August, to formulate a more definitive trading strategy.