Crude oil prices rise as US-Iran strikes raise fears of prolonged Hormuz supply disruption

Oil prices surged on Monday as a cycle of retaliatory strikes between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz fueled worries about a prolonged Middle East supply disruption, according to wire material. Brent crude futures jumped 52 cents, or 0.54%, to $96.80 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 66 cents, or 0.72%, to $92.14 a barrel.

Brent's price climbed 7.8% last week, and WTI increased nearly 10% after the U.S. and Iran resumed attacks, causing a decline in oil flows through the Hormuz strait, which historically transports a fifth of the world's oil supply.

U.S. forces targeted three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one near Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub, according to the U.S. Central Command. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have struck three oil tankers and three U.S. vessels in unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz and other areas, describing the attacks as a "major escalation in the maritime conflict."

The attacks on commercial tankers have weakened the previous separation between military confrontation and commercial shipping, according to maritime intelligence firm Marisks. A restricted zone around the Strait of Hormuz may be announced in the coming days, stated Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, according to state media.

OPEC+ kept its oil output policy unchanged for October during a meeting on Sunday, as it needs to agree on new quotas before deciding its next output steps. Analysts from ANZ expect a prolonged standoff punctuated by calibrated military action by the U.S. and Iran to delay the path to full recovery of Middle East supply, potentially leading to constrained exports through the rest of 2026 and a gradual reopening late in Q4 2026.