US says 'West Asia war will end' as Iran vows 'painful response'; is there a China angle behind Washington's confidence?

The United States asserts its economic sanctions against Iran are effective and anticipates the conflict to conclude with Tehran unable to produce a nuclear weapon. Iran, however, has threatened a more severe and painful response to further US attacks. Central to Washington's confidence is Iran's oil trade, particularly the limited supply China has already acquired.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated Iran possesses only about 30 million barrels of crude oil left, unobtained by China. With US sanctions and a naval blockade hindering Iran's oil supply, Bessent claimed that stock would soon deplete. The blockade, he said, is unprecedented in its impact, describing the sanctions and blockade as a potent tool for isolating Iran economically.

Washington's strategy aims to curb Iran's oil exports and restrict a significant revenue source for the regime. US naval blockades commenced in July, alongside intensified sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports and attempts to circumvent sanctions. Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed the intention to "asphyxiate" Iran's ruling establishment, arguing sanctions combined with the blockade among the most potent economic isolation tools.

He further predicted Iran would be unable to develop a nuclear weapon by the end of the conflict. Bessent indicated that only around 30 million barrels of Iranian crude remained unacquired by China. The US is also exploring alternative oil routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, asserting control over the waterway, contrary to Iran's claim of ownership.

Iran acknowledges the economic strain but asserts it will respond through domestic reforms, not altering its stance under American pressure. The Ministry of Economy established an "Economic War Headquarters" to coordinate responses to economic fallout. Deputy Economy Minister Morteza Zamanian stated the center would initially focus on business, trade, and financing issues, coordinating responses across economic bodies.

Iran's Economy Minister, Ali Madanizadeh, affirmed Iran's commitment to economic reforms, attributing responsibility to the Iranian government and people, not the US Treasury. Despite seeking to address economic repercussions, Iran's leadership has issued a fresh military warning, warning that any attack against Iran's interests and security will face a quicker, heavier, and more painful response.

This warning comes amid renewed hostilities between the US and Iran, with both sides resuming tit-for-tat strikes.