Nvidia (NVDA)’s First-Ever Year-Ahead Forecast Puts It on a Path to Pass Apple and Alphabet

Nvidia's CFO, Colette Kress, announced on August 26 that the company's fiscal 2028 revenue growth will reach a record 70%, significantly higher than the 44% average estimate from analysts. This guidance, based on the $396 billion consensus for fiscal 2027, suggests Nvidia's revenue could reach between $673 billion and $700 billion in 2028, surpassing Apple and Alphabet in U.S. tech company revenue rankings.

The forecast came after Nvidia reported exceptional Q2 results, with revenue doubling to $96.22 billion, up 106% year-over-year, and data center revenue hitting $89 billion, up 117%. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang attributed the growth to AI reaching a stage where it is generating profitable work and directly impacting revenue. Shares surged nearly 8.7% following the news, benefiting the broader semiconductor sector.

Nvidia's guidance implies that supply constraints, particularly memory component shortages, are the primary limiting factors, rather than demand. CEO Huang emphasized that future growth would likely exceed the 70% forecast due to a lack of memory supply, implying the potential for even higher growth once supply catches up. The forecast also highlights Nvidia's broadening customer base, which could reduce concentration risk from a few large clients.

However, Wall Street remains cautious, with Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon questioning the reliability of Nvidia's first-ever year-ahead guide. The forecast's reliance on supply constraints, such as memory shortages and rising server DRAM prices, poses risks to Nvidia's financial outlook.