Most Critical Minerals Aren’t Going to the Energy Transition

An Oakland Institute report suggests that mining for critical minerals to support the energy transition may not be necessary. According to the institute's analysis of International Energy Agency data, 74% of the demand for copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earth elements in 2024 was used in sectors like construction, conventional transport, industrial machinery, defense, electronics and more, rather than renewable energy or electric vehicles.

In 2024, nickel demand was 83% non-renewable, magnet rare-earth demand was 79% non-renewable, copper demand was 71% non-renewable, and both cobalt and graphite demand were 68% non-renewable. The construction sector consumed 30% of global copper, while stainless-steel production accounted for about two-thirds of global nickel demand.

The IEA projects that battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel-cell vehicles will increase from 11 million in 2020 to nearly 2 billion in 2050. This would require 15.7 million metric tons of copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements for these vehicles, accounting for 23% of the projected global demand.

However, the report notes that reducing vehicle ownership, using smaller batteries, and improving recycling rates could significantly lower the demand for lithium in 2050 by up to 92%. The report also highlights that the required mining investment to meet projected demand would increase by one-third without enhanced recycling and reuse.