Germany's far-right AfD seeks landmark state victory as Saxony-Anhalt votes

Voters in Saxony-Anhalt, an eastern German state, will head to the polls on Sunday in a crucial election that could mark the first time a far-right party assumes power at a state level since World War Two. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, led by 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, has been polling strongly and may secure an absolute majority, especially if several smaller parties fail to cross Germany's five percent threshold for parliamentary entry.

The election is closely monitored as a potential gauge for Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government, which has sought to diminish the AfD's appeal by adopting a more stringent stance on migration and security. Recent polls indicate the AfD with around 40 percent support, trailing behind Merz's Christian Democrats (CDU) at 23 percent.

An absolute majority would enable the AfD to bypass traditional "firewall" policies, preventing them from forming a government. Should the AfD fall short of an outright majority, a CDU-led administration under incumbent state premier Sven Schulze is the most probable outcome. Nevertheless, any coalition would depend on which parties surpass the five percent threshold.

For the AfD, the Saxony-Anhalt election is a stepping stone toward its ultimate goal of gaining national power in the next federal election in 2029. Despite the outcome, party leader Siegmund declared at a final rally on Saturday evening that "what we have started here in Saxony-Anhalt — what is currently sweeping across all of Germany — can no longer be stopped."

However, without an absolute majority, the AfD would find it challenging to enter government due to the firewall, and complex coalition negotiations would likely ensue. Polls suggest that one of the CDU's current coalition partners, the Free Democrats (FDP), may fail to reach the five percent threshold, while the Social Democrats (SPD) trail below 10 percent.

The small far-left BSW, the sole party that has not ruled out a coalition with the AfD, is also unlikely to meet the mark. Schulze, favored in polls as the public's preferred leader, may struggle to form a majority coalition with the SPD and Greens, but the CDU has dismissed a potential coalition with the far-left Left Party, which could assist them in reaching that threshold. Initial results are projected around 6 p.m. (1600 GMT) on Sunday, following the close of polling.