Exit polls show big win for Germany’s far-right AfD in state election, but government elusive

In Sunday's regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party secured a significant victory, according to exit polls conducted by ARD and ZDF. The AfD received at least 44% of the vote, with the center-right CDU trailing behind at 18.5%. While it remains uncertain if the AfD will achieve an absolute majority, this win could be a historic first for a far-right party in leading a regional government in Germany since World War II.

The AfD's rise in popularity is linked to widespread discontent with Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government in Berlin. If the party secures an absolute majority, it would bypass the "firewall" that hinders cooperation between mainstream parties and the far-right. The party's manifesto includes controversial proposals such as speeding up deportations, reviving school exchanges with Russia, and banning rainbow flags in schools.

An outright victory for the AfD would displace current CDU state premier Sven Schulze, potentially making the charismatic Ulrich Siegmund the youngest state premier in Germany's history. Merz, who has faced declining approval ratings, has been largely absent from the campaign trail and may be replaced in the upcoming federal elections.

The AfD's success could have significant implications for national politics, particularly in light of the upcoming federal elections in 2029.