CDU Faces Coalition Dilemma as Far-right AfD Surges in Saxony-Anhalt Polls

In Saxony-Anhalt, a state in eastern Germany, the Christian Democrats (CDU) are grappling with a coalition conundrum as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surges in recent polls. With voters heading to the polls on Sunday, the CDU is trailing well behind the AfD, which is projected to secure over 40% of the vote, potentially making it the strongest force in the state parliament. However, the AfD is unlikely to win an absolute majority, leaving open the question of whether it can form a government.

As the election approaches, the CDU's Minister-President, Sven Schulze, faces a dilemma. One of his potential coalition partners, the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), is projected to fall below the threshold for returning to the state parliament. A majority coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens also appears improbable based on current projections. Schulze could, therefore, consider forming a minority government with the Left Party, which is expected to be the third-strongest political force.

However, Schulze has ruled out allowing any ministers from either the AfD or the Left Party into his cabinet. This stance reflects a long-standing CDU red line: a "party incompatibility" resolution adopted at the CDU's 2018 conference prohibits cooperation with both the AfD and the Left Party, which traces its roots to the Party of Democratic Socialism, the successor to East Germany's ruling Socialist Unity Party (SED).

While Schulze's position leaves some room for tolerance from the Left, the CDU's district executive committee in the Harz region has explicitly rejected exploratory talks, coalition agreements, or tolerance arrangements that would depend on Left Party support. The CDU's Secretary-General, Mario Karschunke, clarified that this position is a contribution to the ongoing debate but does not reflect the district executive committee's stance.

The CDU's internal divisions were further highlighted by the election appeal issued by the chairs of the Christian Democratic Employees' Association (CDA) in Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin, and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. They ruled out both the AfD and the Left Party, arguing that far-right positions are socially acceptable in the AfD and that the Left Party, as a successor to the SED, promotes antisemitism and lacks freedom.

The appeal was co-signed by Sepp Müller, the deputy chairman of the CDU parliamentary group in the Bundestag, who has repeatedly spoken out against cooperation with either the AfD or the Left Party.