ASIA WHEAT ROUNDUP: Australian prices hit 3-year high in August amid disruption in Black Sea grains exports

Australian wheat prices skyrocketed to a three-year high in August due to the ongoing disruption in Black Sea wheat exports, according to Platts. Traders and buyers turned to Australian wheat as a replacement, driving up prices to $312/metric ton FOB Kwinana for Australian Premium White and $302/mt FOB for Australian Standard White with no-protein guarantee.

Platts, a division of S&P Global Energy, reported a $23/mt increase in the Platts APW wheat assessment and a $20/mt rise in the ASW1 assessment over the same period. The high liquidity in the Australian wheat market was evident in August, with traders executing destination contracts amid the Black Sea wheat export disruption. However, the focus shifted from bulk shipments to the containers market.

While September and October wheat export capacity is fully booked, new crop supply is expected to arrive by November. An Australian trader noted that buyers need to see more action from buyers further into the new crop, as canola and barley are likely to take up most of the early supply in Western Australia. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences raised its wheat production estimates for the marketing year 2026-27 to 29.9 million metric tons, up from the previous estimate of 26.7 million metric tons.

Other destination buyers started seeking alternatives, with the Philippines purchasing a September shipment of US Soft White Winter Wheat and a Vietnamese buyer buying multiple cargoes of US SWW. Some sources also considered Indian wheat, which, despite its low price of $325/mt FOB, could become a significant supplier if the Black Sea disruption persists.

A deal for ex-Khandla wheat was already executed for Sri Lanka, marking the first shipment in many years. Buyers are expected to continue purchasing containers, but the decision to buy full bulk vessels remains uncertain, as any market drop could harm the first buyers. In Vietnam, flour millers noted that high protein wheat prices are rising faster than low protein. Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, reported these developments.