Ocean indicators NOAA scientists are tracking for El Niño's arrival on the West Coast
Has El Niño reached the West Coast? You might think it has. After all, the ocean off Southern and Central California is unusually warm. But that warmth is from a recent marine heat wave that predates the current El Niño. Much of the Pacific Coast is experiencing relatively normal conditions while still awaiting the impacts of what could be a very strong El Niño.
El Niño has not yet reached the West Coast, despite unusually warm ocean temperatures off Southern and Central California. These warmer waters are due to a recent marine heat wave rather than the effects of El Niño. NOAA declared El Niño's development in June based on tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, which warm up ahead of the phenomenon's impact on the Americas.
However, El Niño-related warming along the West Coast typically follows this increase by a few months. NOAA Fisheries scientists are monitoring West Coast conditions as part of their Integrated Ecosystem Assessment. Key indicators of El Niño's arrival include changes in ocean currents, atmospheric pressure patterns, and the behavior of marine life.
Kelvin waves, linked to El Niño, can reach California by May-June and deepen the thermocline, leading to unusually high surface temperatures. While migratory fish species favoring warm waters have already expanded their range northward, this alone does not indicate El Niño. Instead, scientists are observing the presence of unusual species off California, such as blue marlin and giant manta ray, which were associated with warm waters during a previous El Niño period linked to The Blob.
Additionally, seabird populations are being monitored as they reflect changes in prey availability. Initial signs suggest that conditions for pelicans and Brandt's cormorants remain poor, similar to those observed during the 2015-2016 El Niño event. The Newport Hydrological Line off Oregon has also tracked ocean changes year-round, documenting shifts in copepod species that may reflect El Niño's influence.
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