New method predicts where massive earthquakes will strike

UC Riverside geophysicists Gareth Funning and Axel Periollat have devised a novel method to pinpoint where the most powerful earthquakes on Earth are most likely to occur, providing a crucial tool for enhancing disaster preparedness in high-risk seismic zones. This technique focuses on detecting stress accumulation along major faults, rather than predicting the precise moment when an earthquake will strike.

The researchers tested their model by examining the Kamchatka subduction zone in eastern Russia, where their method correctly identified the exact area where a large earthquake subsequently occurred. Subduction zones, where one tectonic plate slides under another, are responsible for the world's most significant earthquakes, often exceeding magnitude 8.5 and triggering devastating tsunamis.

By analyzing GPS data on subtle ground movements, the scientists identified regions known as asperities—areas of intense friction that store energy until the stress becomes too great, resulting in a major earthquake. Although the timing of these events remains beyond the scope of their method, the researchers demonstrated that their approach can accurately predict the location of strain buildup.

The findings revealed noteworthy variations in earthquake behavior within the same region: the 2025 Kamchatka quake generated a smaller tsunami compared to the 1952 event, indicating that the fault slipped less in the shallower part during the recent rupture. While the method does not account for tsunami size or earthquake timing, identifying high-risk areas can significantly improve long-term planning and disaster preparedness.

The researchers are now extending their methodology to other major subduction zones, such as those in Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, and the Pacific Northwest. Each of these regions presents unique challenges, including slow energy release rather than sudden seismic events. The team is also exploring whether similar techniques can enhance understanding of California's faults, which exhibit both creeping and locked sections similar to subduction zones.

To fully implement this method globally, enhanced offshore data measurements are crucial, as many of the world's most dangerous faults lie beneath the ocean. Researchers are deploying acoustic instruments on the seafloor to monitor slow deformation over extended periods, with plans for similar initiatives in Chile and the Pacific Northwest.

Additionally, a recently launched satellite could provide valuable measurements in regions currently lacking GPS coverage. However, the researchers emphasize that while this algorithm can significantly improve earthquake location forecasting, it should not replace existing public preparedness measures. Funning stressed that "your peace of mind shouldn't come from believing we can forecast the exact earthquake."

In Southern California, the focus should remain on "when" rather than "if" an earthquake will occur, underscoring the importance of preparation and resilience.