World food prices at highest since 2022 as supply risks mount, says FAO

Paris — Global food prices surged to their highest level in three years, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), as adverse weather conditions and conflicts in the Middle East amplify concerns over the supply of essential staples. The FAO's Food Price Index, which measures monthly changes in globally traded food commodities, averaged 133.3 points in August, up from July's revised reading of 130.8, marking the highest score since November 2022.

This surge, however, remains nearly 17% below the record peak reached in March 2022, following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The increase in food prices signals a return of risk premiums to the market, as climate shocks, geopolitical tensions, and disrupted trade logistics tighten supply expectations. Maximo Torero, the FAO's Chief Economist, highlighted that extreme weather in Europe has negatively impacted maize and sugar beet harvests, as well as livestock output. Additionally, the anticipated El Nino weather pattern has raised concerns about vegetable oil and sugar production.

The rising prices were primarily driven by disruptions in grain shipments from Russia and Ukraine due to the ongoing conflict in the Black Sea, and the US-Iran conflict has further strained the supply of essential fertilizers for crops. Despite these challenges, the FAO expects global cereal production for 2026 to reach 2.980 billion tons, a 3.4 million-ton reduction from the previous month, but still 2% above last year's record-breaking harvest.