SAWS warns 2027 could be South Africa’s hottest year on record as El Niño strengthens
South Africa could experience record heat, below-normal rainfall and more frequent severe heatwaves in 2027 if a forecast very strong El Niño develops as expected, the South African Weather Service says.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has warned that 2027 may be South Africa's hottest year on record due to an intensifying El Niño event. A strong El Niño has formed in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to strengthen during the Southern Hemisphere spring, potentially becoming the strongest event in living memory. The latest predictions indicate that the anomaly in the eastern central tropical Pacific Ocean could surpass 3 degrees Celsius, well above the threshold for a very strong El Niño, which is 2 degrees Celsius above normal.
SAWS predicts below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most of South Africa from October to December 2026 through January 2027, similar to the conditions expected during the 2015/16 El Niño. The agency warns that, combined with global warming, this very strong El Niño could result in 2027 being the warmest year ever recorded.
Uncertainty remains over the eventual strength and regional impacts of the El Niño, but SAWS emphasizes the need to closely monitor risks including heatwaves and water scarcity.
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