Germany: Is Saxony-Anhalt's economy really struggling?

Germany is closely observing the upcoming state election in Saxony-Anhalt, an eastern state where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is projected to likely win, according to recent polls. In the previous election held in 2021, the AfD secured around 20% of the vote and emerged as the largest opposition party. Currently, Saxony-Anhalt is governed by a coalition featuring the Christian Democrats (CDU), Social Democrats (SPD), and Free Democrats (FDP), with the CDU leading as the state premier, Sven Schulze.

The AfD's campaign focuses on the notion that Saxony-Anhalt has been economically and socially disadvantaged both nationally and domestically. Unemployment rates in the state exceed the national average, and median earnings for full-time employees lag behind the rest of Germany. Of the state's approximately 2.1 million inhabitants, just under 800,000 hold jobs that require social security contributions.

Historically, the chemical industry has been a significant employer in Saxony-Anhalt, contributing notably to the economy, especially in the chemical triangle region comprising Leuna, Merseburg, and Bitterfeld-Wolfen.

Manufacturing sectors like machinery and plant engineering, including suppliers to the struggling automotive industry, also hold considerable importance. The retail, transport, and hospitality sectors account for roughly one-fifth of the state's employment, including a significant number of tourism-related jobs. Key tourist attractions include the Harz Mountains, Luther cities like Wittenberg and Eisleben, and Quedlinburg, a UNESCO World Heritage site.

While it's often stated that eastern German states have not yet caught up with their former West German counterparts, this is not entirely accurate. Pensions in Saxony-Anhalt are on par with the national average, though a slightly higher proportion of residents are retirees. Due to the higher proportion of pensioners, Saxony-Anhalt ranks among the lowest in economic output per capita in Germany, at only three-quarters of the national average.

Additionally, the state has experienced more recent growth in population with more non-Germans migrating to Saxony-Anhalt than leaving since 2016. Despite this, the claim that foreigners are living off taxpayers is inaccurate, as the state has a comparatively low proportion of foreign nationals receiving welfare benefits.