Germany and Russia: From “Change Through Trade” to Sharp Power
Dmitry Stratievski on the transformation of German-Russian relations after 2022
In 2022, Germany underwent a significant shift in its relationship with Russia. Following the annexation of Crimea and the commencement of the war in Donbas, Berlin's approach to Russian influence underwent a drastic change. The "Change through Trade" strategy and the "Partnership for Modernization" were discarded, and Germany began providing Ukraine with military support and acknowledged the collapse of the previous relationship.
The political landscape saw a purge of pro-Russian politicians, with former chancellor Gerhard Schröder facing criticism and potential expulsion from his party. As for Russia, its ability to exert leverage over German politics diminished. Direct economic ties were severed, with imports from Russia falling by 95% from 2021 levels.
The Kremlin lost the capacity to impact German economic decisions, both directly through energy and export markets, and indirectly. Political parties, especially those traditionally sympathetic to Russia, saw a decline in influence. While AfD deputies can still travel to Russia, they must obtain permission, and AfD-led delegations to Russia have become increasingly scrutinized.
The shift in Germany's stance towards Russia has resulted in a new political climate, where any attempt to restore dialogue with Russia is seen as career-threatening.
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