Europe is under increased Russian attack. Are we seeing an undeclared war?

Europe is witnessing an escalating conflict with Russia, often referred to as an "undeclared war". Since the beginning of Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2022, the fighting has entered a stalemate characterized by a surge in drone and missile attacks, aimed at critical infrastructure and civilians. This conflict has spilled beyond the borders of Ukraine and Russia, affecting European countries through hybrid warfare tactics.

Hybrid warfare involves unconventional methods used in a multi-domain war, intended to disrupt and disable an opponent. Russia has been employing such methods, primarily to disrupt NATO's European member states. These tactics include sabotage, cyber attacks on energy grids and communication infrastructure, and physical attacks on NATO's critical undersea cable infrastructure. An example of this is the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline in September 2022.

The intensity of these attacks has increased recently. Germany has been targeted with drone attacks, including an attempt on Leipzig Airport. Romania has also faced Russian aggression, including drone strikes near its oil platforms in the Black Sea and increased incursions into Romanian airspace. These actions have not only affected military installations but have also caused civilian casualties, such as a Russian drone hitting an apartment building in Romania in May 2026.

NATO has responded to these threats by ramping up its air policing along its Eastern border to secure the airspace. It has also provided more air defense capabilities to affected border states. However, the situation remains tense, with NATO leaders warning that any further acts causing civilian deaths or large-scale destruction will be considered armed attacks and trigger a collective defense response.

The situation is complex, with some questioning the effectiveness of NATO's response given the commitment of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has expressed doubts about NATO and its collective security mandate. This uncertainty adds to the potential for further escalation.