El Nino to persist till Feb: What it means for India

New Delhi: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) anticipates that the ongoing El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific will likely escalate into a very strong event, persisting until February 2027. Such a strong El Nino could significantly impact rainfall and temperature patterns, posing risks of floods, droughts, and extreme heat.

Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General, warned that El Nino, meaning 'boy child' in Spanish, has the potential to inflict considerable damage on communities and economies worldwide. The WMO projections are based on recent statements from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which forecast that El Nino conditions might continue until February 2027.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) had predicted that overall rainfall in the country during August would be deficient by 16 percent due to El Nino conditions. The month of August also marked the hottest on record since 1901, again linked to the El Nino phenomenon. Looking ahead to September, the IMD has projected rainfall levels to be below 91 percent of the long-term average, a trend that is expected to continue into winter due to the intensifying El Nino.

Climate Trends, a Delhi-based climate think tank, recently discovered that winters in northern India are shortening, with warmer February-March periods becoming increasingly common. The faster warming, at a rate of 0.69 degree Celsius per decade, coincides with the reproductive and grain filling stages of wheat, affecting production in major wheat-growing regions.