Sri Lanka’s rice conundrum: Time to stop managing crises and start fixing the system

Sri Lanka faces an ongoing rice crisis, a conundrum that persists despite decades of agricultural research, policy interventions, expert committees and public debate. The fundamental issue is not merely about increasing rice production or managing prices and imports, but rather a complex national systems problem. Rice is deeply intertwined with Sri Lanka's land, water, climate, technology, finance, energy, transport, markets, trade, governance, institutions and consumer behavior. A decision in one part of this system can have far-reaching consequences in another.

For instance, changes in fertiliser policy can affect productivity, production costs and market prices, impacting both farmers' profits and the need for imports. Irrigation decisions can influence production, water availability, energy use and environmental sustainability. Policies regarding rice prices can protect consumers while simultaneously weakening incentives for domestic production. Market concentration affects both farmer and consumer prices.

Decades of valuable scientific knowledge on rice production and marketing have been generated, but without a systems thinking approach, this knowledge often remains fragmented and ineffective. A more comprehensive approach is needed – one that views rice as a "rice system" rather than just a "rice crop". This means looking at all stages from land, water, seed, inputs, technology and finance through cultivation, harvesting, drying, milling, storage, transport, marketing, and finally to the consumer.

The challenge is not simply about producing more rice, but about making the entire rice system work better. This requires recognizing the connections within the system. For example, post-harvest losses can't be addressed by simply increasing production if there are inadequate drying, storage or processing facilities. Even efficient production cannot improve livelihoods if farmers face weak markets and poor bargaining power.

The missing piece in Sri Lanka's rice system is reliable, real-time information. There currently exists a fragmented and incomplete national information system for rice, scattered among different institutions and collected using different methodologies. This lack of a comprehensive, integrated, interoperable and reliable national information system poses a significant national food-security vulnerability.

It is crucial to establish a National Rice Intelligence and Decision Support System (NRIDSS), an integrated digital platform that brings together real-time information from various institutions including agriculture, meteorology, irrigation, markets, trade, statistics and others. This system could support production forecasting, market monitoring, import decisions, early warning and evidence-based policy formulation, ultimately becoming an essential component of national food-system governance in the face of increasing uncertainty.