Map of States Trump Won Twice Where Democrats Lead With 2 Months to Midterm

Recent polling suggests Democrats are currently leading in several key races, including gubernatorial and Senate contests, in states that President Donald Trump won during both the 2020 and 2024 elections. Eleven months before the 2026 midterm elections, these competitive races in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas are seen as critical assessments of the political climate under Trump's second term, which has been marred by declining approval ratings due to economic concerns, tariff policies, and the ongoing Iran war.

Democrats are strategizing to capitalize on recent victories and underperformance of the White House party in midterm elections, aiming to make gains in states Trump previously carried. Sabato's Crystal Ball recently shifted three gubernatorial contests to favor Democrats, including races in Iowa and Alaska, both of which Trump won in 2020 and 2024.

Other analysts, such as the Cook Political Report, classify these races as toss-ups, with Democratic candidates maintaining strong polling numbers ahead of November's election. With only two months until Election Day on November 3, the outcome of these competitive races could significantly shape the balance of power in Washington and state capitals, as Democrats endeavor to counteract Republican gains in Trump's former strongholds.

Among these states, Trump secured 25 in 2020 and 31 in 2024. In 2020, Trump lost to Joe Biden, who amassed 306 electoral votes compared to Trump's 232. Four years later, Trump defeated Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, winning 312 electoral votes to 226. Despite losing the popular vote in 2020, Trump secured four states Biden won four years prior: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The remaining 25 states that voted for Trump in both elections are generally considered Republican strongholds. Republicans also regained control of the Senate in 2024, taking over seats held by Democrats and maintaining their majority in the chamber, while still holding onto the House of Representatives. At the state level, Republicans continue to hold a majority of governorships nationwide.

Former President Barack Obama carried Iowa by about 10 points in both the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, but Trump outperformed him in each of his presidential bids, triumphing by 10 points in 2016, 8 points in 2020, and 13 points in 2024. Iowa's Governor Kim Reynolds, who has been in office since 2017, is not up for reelection.

The last time a Democrat won Iowa's governorship was in 2006, when Chet Culver was elected, but he lost his reelection bid in 2010 to Republican Terry Branstad, and Republicans have been in power ever since. Democrat Rob Sand, Iowa State Auditor, is contesting against Republican businessman Zach Lahn in the state's open governor's race.

Recent polls indicate Sand leading Lahn, with an Emerson College Polling survey showing Sand ahead by 49 percent to Lahn's 46 percent, with 6 percent of voters still undecided. Independent voters favor Sand, with a 12-point margin in their support. Sand's lead is attributed to the solid backing of Trump voters, with approximately 30 percent of them backing him.

Other polls, such as a Suffolk University poll from August 20-23, have also shown Sand leading Lahn, with Sand at 48 percent and Lahn at 44 percent. Sand's campaign has gained momentum as some voters appear willing to split their ballots between different parties.