Kyiv warns of new Russian northern offensive — could it happen?

Four-and-a-half years after Russian troops invaded Ukraine and failed to capture Kyiv, Ukrainian officials are warning that the country could face another northern offensive. Russia's political leadership has reportedly tasked its military with preparing various scenarios for an operation targeting Kyiv and Chernihiv, Ukraine's capital.

This comes after Belarusian opposition warned in June that Minsk is preparing to enter the conflict. Despite no visible military activity on the ground, analysts believe a renewed northern offensive in the near future cannot be ruled out.

Russia attempted to seize Kyiv in 2022, but ultimately failed. Now, with much of its army consisting of poorly trained troops and outdated equipment, Russia may consider a new offensive to stretch Ukrainian forces and pull units away from their current positions. Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, suggests that a new buildup of troops could serve this purpose.

However, Russia's manpower constraints make it unlikely that it can deploy additional forces without holding another partial mobilization or redeploying troops from current areas.

According to a Russia researcher at the Institute for the Study of War, Russia remains focused on the current front, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. The Kremlin is reportedly demanding the seizure of the remaining 19% of Donetsk Oblast by Dec. 31, 2025, but Moscow seems unwilling to redeploy units currently engaged in this main effort.

Ukraine claims that Russia's General Staff has prepared a scenario to mobilize an additional 600,000 people, with 300,000 in 2026 and another 300,000 in 2027. However, the process of restructure, training, and logistics would take time and would generate observable indicators. No signs of troop buildup have been observed so far, and there is no evidence of Russia assembling a strike force in Belarus.