Health officials use mobile-phone data to track Ebola spread in Congo
As the virus spread beyond its initial epicentre, Flowminder expanded the analysis.
Health officials battling the Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are utilizing anonymized mobile-phone data to track population movements and pinpoint areas where the virus could spread next. This innovative approach, never before employed in an Ebola response, aims to identify potential outbreak hotspots and efficiently allocate limited surveillance and response resources.
As of now, the record-breaking outbreak has infected more than 6,250 people and claimed 3,039 lives across six provinces since its declaration on May 15. Caused by the Bundibugyo species of Ebola, there are currently no approved vaccines or treatments for the virus. To anticipate potential outbreak locations, health officials focus on comprehending population movements, as they play a crucial role in the spread of the virus.
Traditional risk assessments typically focus on outbreak hotspots, assuming the virus will primarily spread to nearby areas. However, analyzing mobility data offers a more nuanced understanding of risk, enabling responders to identify risks in geographically distant locations with significant travel links. Swedish non-profit Flowminder produces the risk assessments using anonymized data generated when mobile phone users connect to telecommunications networks.
Researchers examine how people travel between different areas based on their phone records, which are provided free of charge by Congo's largest telecom operator, Vodacom. Initial Flowminder analysis revealed that the largest population movements occurred from the outbreak's suspected starting points to nearby regions in Ituri province and North Kivu province.
By the end of June, 10 of the destinations with the most significant flows of travelers from the outbreak areas had reported confirmed Ebola cases. As the outbreak expanded beyond its initial epicenter, Flowminder's analysis was expanded to include additional affected areas. Notably, Kisangani, a major transport hub on the Congo River, was identified as a high-risk location.
The findings have prompted the WHO to warn of the potential for the outbreak to spread to Kinshasa, Congo's capital and largest city, with a 70% probability of a case being detected by the end of September.
Written by urgent.news from SABC News's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
