Europe struggles to respond as Russia escalates shadow warfare

Since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, European spy chiefs have expressed concerns that the conflict is spilling over onto their soil through Russia's "hybrid attacks." These attacks, which fall short of open warfare, have included drone flights near sensitive sites, airspace violations, cyberattacks, and suspected assassination plots. However, Kyiv's Western allies have struggled to devise effective countermeasures to halt Moscow's hybrid assaults.

Denmark's intelligence agency recently warned that Russia is actively preparing sabotage operations against its defense industry, while France's top domestic spy revealed that an explosive-laden drone discovered at a German airport in August could signal that French companies might be next. French intelligence chief Celine Berthon emphasized the need to adapt to the evolving threat during a panel titled "Are we ready to face war?"

At a recent business forum, Germany blamed Russia for a drone incident at Leipzig airport, which the EU deemed state-sponsored terrorism. EU nations summoned Russia's envoys and are contemplating fresh sanctions, but analysts contend that traditional measures have proven ineffective. Andrei Soldatov, a London-based expert on Russian security services, noted that the Western toolkit is outdated and that new approaches are required.

The recent Leipzig drone episode highlights an apparent escalation in the tactics Russia is willing to employ on NATO soil. As the US becomes an increasingly unreliable partner within the transatlantic alliance under President Donald Trump, Germany's response is being questioned. Sergey Lagodinsky, a Russian-born German MEP, suggested that Berlin's actions signal the country is running out of retaliatory measures.

As attacks escalate, Western democracies are grappling with the tools they can use to respond, especially when the operations are carried out by third-country proxies, often with plausible deniability. European security sources admit that the response to hybrid warfare is complex, requiring a shift in mindset within intelligence services and improved intelligence-sharing across European agencies.

However, experts warn that the escalation of hybrid warfare carries the risk of mass casualty events, as there is no agreed framework governing such escalation.