Compared to driving, flying is extraordinarily safe. But why doesn't it feel that way?

While flying boasts an extraordinarily safe record compared to driving, the feeling of danger persists. Commercial airline crashes, while rare, evoke strong reactions due to their catastrophic nature. However, avoiding flying and opting for driving can actually increase risk, even if it doesn't seem that way. People tend to focus on vivid, rare events while overlooking familiar, frequent hazards.

As a result, one choice can lead to another dangerous behavior. The Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University's Boeing Center for Aviation and Aerospace Safety analyzed fatality risks in U.S. commercial aviation from 2016 to 2025. The data consistently shows that commercial aviation is exceptionally safe, with a fatality risk about 626 times higher in a passenger car or truck than on a commercial airline for the same distance traveled.

Even bus travel, relatively safe, carries about nine times the risk of commercial airline travel. The risk of dying in a commercial airline accident from 2016 to 2024 was approximately one fatality per 97.7 million boardings. Despite this low risk, avoiding flying can lead to increased road traffic and fatalities as people drive instead.

This shift in behavior can be attributed to the fear of a dread risk, a low-probability event with many potential fatalities. While the risk of flying is small, changing travel patterns in response to perceived dangers can create new hazards.