Vil eie mindre statsgjeld

Norges Bank has sent letters to the government regarding the oil fund's debt and geopolitical risk. The bank suggests reducing the proportion of government bonds in the fund's fixed income portfolio from 70% to 50%. This includes adjusting the government bond exposure to be weighted by market value rather than gross domestic product (GDP).

The bank recommends including government bonds and securities backed by residential mortgages in the fund's bond index, after excluding them since 2012. The bank also advises that the fund's benchmark index should be a broad market index (Bloomberg Global Aggregate), with the exception of bonds issued by emerging markets. As of the first half of the year, the oil fund held fixed income assets worth 5.860 billion kroner, which is equivalent to over 1.000 billion kroner if the government bond proportion is reduced to 50%.

Many countries have high levels of debt, and even if government bonds are weighted by market value, the central bank may still need to manage situations involving debt relief, restructuring, or sanctions. The geopolitical risks for the fund include war and conflict, protectionism, and a more fragmented global economy, which can create uncertainty.

These risks are further exacerbated by the rapid and widespread nature of geopolitical events, which can impact the fund's operating environment. The Norwegian Oil Fund faces risks such as capital gains taxes, regulatory interventions, and confiscation. The fund's special characteristics may also expose it to geopolitical risks in different ways than other investors.

It is important for the fund's financial objectives to remain clear and be perceived as such by the global community. The bank notes that the fund's political risk in the letter to the finance department. The concentration of the fund's performance in certain political and regulatory conditions could make the line between financial and non-financial risk less distinct than before.

The bank believes that a large state fund may attract attention from both allies and adversaries, and may be more exposed to geopolitical risk than other funds.