US labour market remains stable; services input price rises point to elevated inflation

The US labour market remained stable last week, with the number of Americans filing unemployment claims rising slightly, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics. This stability provides the Federal Reserve with the opportunity to concentrate on inflation stemming from the Middle East conflict. An Institute for Supply Management survey revealed that prices paid by services businesses for inputs surged to a three-year high in August, indicating that recent inflation is not limited to the goods sector.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested that a rate hike by the end of the year is possible if inflation pressures ease. However, the final decision will depend on upcoming data from consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI). Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased by 2,000 to 206,000 for the week ended August 29, slightly higher than economists' forecast of 205,000.

The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid rose by 8,000 to 1.779 million. Despite this, the labour market remains in a "slow hire, slow fire" mode, with only a minor increase in planned job cuts by US-based companies in August. The trade deficit expanded 24.4% to $88.6 billion in July, driven by a surge in imports and a sharp increase in capital goods imports, particularly in the AI sector.