Tehran aims to knock US out of Middle East before renewed attacks on Israel, expert tells ‘Post’

Military historian Tom Cooper claimed that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is aiming to force the United States out of the Middle East before any renewed conflict with Israel. On Tuesday, Iran retaliated against American-linked targets in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, following the US's renewed strikes against IRGC sites in Iran.

By focusing attacks on Hormuz and regional nations, Cooper argued the IRGC seeks to "knock out one opponent - the USA - out of this war" while preserving its firepower for future Israeli attacks. Attacking Gulf states and disrupting oil, gas, and fertilizer exports creates indirect pressure on neighboring countries through rising costs and shipping risks.

Tehran hopes this will encourage regional states to reconsider their stance. The IRGC believes a war involving Israel would lead to a two-front conflict, risking damage to its infrastructure, but says its infrastructure can withstand prolonged attacks. Cooper stated that Iran's preparation for conflict over the past two decades supports its asymmetric deterrence strategy.

He also suggested the US could wait for President Donald Trump's patience, supplies, or presidency to end. A Pew Research poll found that 42% of Americans viewed Israelis negatively, and 62% viewed the Israeli government unfavorably, with younger generations showing stronger negative views. Cooper suggested Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aims to "spend" American military support while it's available.

Despite Pentagon claims of munitions shortages, Cooper said Iran is forcing the US to exhaust its strategic stocks of cruise missiles and interceptors, reducing US capability in coordinated attacks. He credited Iran's success in knocking out US presence in the Middle East to the "arrogance and incompetence" of US-Israeli leadership over the years.