New pipelines will not make Strait of Hormuz ‘worthless’

New pipelines will not render the Strait of Hormuz useless, according to analysts. The narrow channel remains crucial for container shipping and the transport of natural gas, despite plans for pipelines that would bypass it for oil export. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently declared the strait "a worthless piece of water" in two years, once new pipelines are operational.

Up to 70% of energy usually traveling through the Strait might end up in pipelines, but Gulf countries and Iraq are heavily investing in pipeline projects. The UAE and Iraq aim to double and triple their oil export capacity via new pipelines, respectively. However, these pipelines cannot fully replace the roughly 20 million barrels of oil and products that typically transit the Strait.

The Strait's importance for container traffic and LNG exports is less easily replicated, making it strategically significant in the medium term. While some trade has shifted to ports in Oman and the UAE, these routes cannot match the capacity, economics, or convenience of Gulf ports like Jebel Ali. The Strait remains a critical artery, with its importance diminishing only as viable alternatives emerge, such as increased oil and gas production from the Americas.